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The article suggests possible explanations for the variation in the effects of labour shortages on union bargaining power. To this end, a new conceptual model centred on the effectiveness of power is proposed, which lies at the intersection between ‘power to’ and ‘power over’: it therefore combines both the unions' ability to construct collective strategies and use their resources (power to) and their ability to exert a decisive influence on the other party to generate results that are beneficial to them (power over). In an attempt to avoid the determinism often associated with ‘power over’, this model proposes the integration of elements specific to the negotiation process, thus recognising the importance of actors' strategies. By means of interviews with experienced union negotiators, this article demonstrates that the same phenomenon, in this case the labour shortage, produces differentiated effects depending on the subjects of negotiation and the strategies deployed by the players, by affecting both the quality of the strategic leverages, the challenges posed to the unions' organizational capacity and the nature and strength of the employer resistance in negotiation. Furthermore, this theoretical model facilitates an enhanced dialogue between literature focusing on the unions' agentivity and that focused on negotiation strategies and processes, while providing an analytical framework for labor relations practitioners to understand the effects of environmental changes on their bargaining power.