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  • A study presents a quantitative retrospective evaluation of 3 Canadian occupational projections covering the period of 1961 to 1981 in an attempt to assess their usefulness as a guide to education and training policies. Using appropriately adjusted, detailed occupational data from the 1961, 1971, and 1981 Canadian censuses, the results indicate that for broad categories, such projections do appear to provide reasonable results. For the major occupational groups, all 3 projections were within a range of plus or minus 10% of the ex post actual employment for the majority of the groups. As might be expected, the projection accuracy declined as the occupational detail increased. However, these ex post evaluations do suggest that a variable coefficients model can provide useful additional information for occupational projections. The results do not suggest that it is possible to simply take on faith the results of any occupational projection.

Last update from database: 10/2/24, 4:10 AM (UTC)

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